Mrs. Deng asked me one question: have you disappeared for a long time during April and May for not observing any narration and pictures in my space?  At first, I needed to say thank you for your attention to my space.  And then my track will catalog as the time collapsed during that period.

    The Wedding Party of Dr. Xu Ying Chen and Zhao Huan------Li Ning’s Arrival at Beijing-----Communication with former students-----798 Theme Park-----Long Qing Xia-----Party

    1     Wedding Party of Dr. Xu Ying Chen and Zhao Huan

    2     Li Ning’s Arrival at Beijing

    3     Communication with former students

    4     Communication with former students

    5     Communication with former students

    6     Party

    That is over.  Next fantasy is expected to come along the lives between RUI and Me.  RUI, I Love You…..

    Today I need to finish the last course named “Production and Operation Management” given by Professor Wang Jing, Professor Huang Hai Jun, Professor Zhou Hong and Professor Jia Guozhu.  This course is the most top-level in Beihang University, and it is really very best according to the self feeling.  I have learnt a lot from it and known two foreign students, the first be Le Fei, while the second be Mai La. And at last we had a lunch meal in Big Pizza. And we gave the presentation, which was “Efficient dispatching rules for scheduling in a job shop”.  If you want the Power Point which was derived from the collaboration between Algeria, please sent the email “xiejunbuaa@gmail.com” to me and it is my pleasure to send it to you.  By the way, we can use the software “LEKIN” to schedule the processes in a closed job shop or in an open job shop. 

    The glorious work about the job shop had done in the BLUE BALL FIXED.  I assure that you will be amazed by what you have seen in the animation.  Just check it.

    Searched in the web about Operation Research, Travelling Salesmen Problem is NP-hard problem as the number increases to the infinite.  So thousands upon thousands literature focus on this domain for almost thirty years.  However, one person comes a new idea to solve this difficulty successfully below.

    Whew, it is a little crazy, is not it? 

    Today, when I finished one copy of my “rubbish” lecture, I counted the words in the Word 2003 as the number of “char 21637”.  In order to calculate the gap between a lecture from “Journal of Production Economics”.  So I searched in Adobe Acrobat for this function.  Unfortunately, I got nothing.  Then I searched the web.  And Finally, I jumped to a website called “Count on It: Free Online Word Count”.  It can work on PDF.  So wish you can employ such tool to help you to solve the dame thing in PDF.  Thank you….

    Because I search the web for “Fundamentals of Decision Making” about the theory of Analytic Hierarchy Process(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Analytic_Hierarchy_Process and Expert Choice Software For AHP) and find this article, I decide to share it with the ones who come to my space.  Thank you.  The full text can be seen from the link(http://www.articlealley.com/article_91513_15.html) .  Now I am conducting on this field, so if you have questions about AHP please contact with me for the “SCI” lecture resources, which I can email to you…

    Every decision that we make (or don't make) shapes our future. Everyone tries to make good decisions. However, it is easy to overlook an important factor, miss a desirable option, or base the decision on unreliable information. In addition, fear of making a wrong choice can cause us to postpone decisions, leading to missed opportunities. A structured decision-making process ensures that important decisions are made on time and are based on facts, research, and analysis. This paper describes the basic components of all decisions and a step-by-step decision-making process. This process can be easily adapted for group use. Components of Decisions The most important aspect of structured decision-making is to recognize and analyze the basic components of decisions.

    Context - The context describes the situation surrounding the decision. For example, the deadline and who needs to be involved to ensure a successful result.

    Objectives - A clear understanding of desired outcomes guides decision-making and makes it easier, logical, and less stressful. (People often avoid making decisions because of a lack of clear objectives.)

    Options - Significant effort must be spent uncovering all available options, studying how each may be implemented and what results they will produce. Too often, people limit themselves to a few obvious choices, and do not explore unusual (breakthrough) ideas.

    Criteria - The criteria used to select the best possible options are determined by the context and objectives. Hard criteria are conditions which must be satisfied in order to have a useful decision, such as budget or time constraints. Soft criteria are conditions which require subjective assessment, and therefore can be more difficult to apply. Examples are level of organizational disruption and employee satisfaction. Successful decisions are based on reliable information and verifiable data. Adequate time should be spent to thoroughly research the options and their implications. Decisions based on gut-feeling are difficult to defend and frequently encounter unexpected obstacles when implemented. Decision-making requires time. The time and effort spent should be in proportion to the importance of the decision. Following a step-by-step decision-making process and documenting each step, helps to clarify thinking and ensures sustained progress towards a good, timely decision. Decision-Making Process An effective decision-making process ensures that all four components are analyzed. Templates are used to simplify the work and remind us of important aspects of each component. The steps are normally completed in a sequential manner. However, it is acceptable to skip ahead and quickly jot down some information while it is fresh in one's memory, or to jump back and fill in new information that was overlooked initially.

    Step 1:

    Determine the importance and the context of the decision Use a worksheet to analyze the context. On the worksheet, list the following: By when does the decision need to be made? What is the time period for implementation of this decision? What will be the outcome in the case of a successful decision? What will be outcome for a wrong decision? What will be the consequences of not making a decision? Who will be impacted by the decision? Who are the key people that will help to make the decision successful? What type of activities and changes in the environment and behaviors will be needed? If the decision will impact a large number of individuals or entities, what resources and actions will be needed to manage this impact? Can early feedback through polling or other methods help in understanding the impact on the individuals or entities? Who are the key individuals who will need to support the decision with respect to funding or human resources in order to make it succeed? The context determines the possible consequences of the decision, the time period involved, and who needs to be involved in the decision process. Significant time and effort should be invested for important decisions.

    Step 2:

    Determine the objectives for the decision Draft an objectives worksheet and list the primary and secondary goals for the decision. This worksheet should include the desired outcomes and indicate which outcomes are to be avoided.

    Step 3:

    List all options Develop an options worksheet by listing all available options. Use brainstorming or other methods to identify as many additional options as you can. Make special effort to identify impossible, wild or unrealistic options, as these may lead to outstanding 'out of the box' solutions. Find ways to uncover new options that may not be obvious. To encourage creativity, all options should be listed without critique. Once all available options have been listed, clarify each option and select the most promising ones for further analysis. (Be careful not to discard options too early in the process.)

    Step 4:

    Explore promising options The most promising options should be discussed and analyzed to determine how they may be applied and what results they will produce. Consider how options relate to one another, and whether some options have common components or make implementation of other options easier. In parallel with this analysis, identify options that need more research or clarification. Several techniques are available for analyzing the options in order to understand their implications. Interpretive Structural Modeling or Concept Mapping can be used to analyze the inter-relationships of the options. Implementation analysis can provide a clear view of resource requirements, people and groups affected, and any cautions to exercise when implementing the option. A SWOT analysis can be used to determine the Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats for each option. The options are analyzed to gain a clear understanding of their implications before applying the decision-making criteria. This is to ensure that options are not discarded prematurely and that an accurate analysis takes place.

    Step 5:

    Establish decision-making criteria Review your objectives as you develop the set of criteria that will be used to rate the options. Criteria may be clear conditions, which must be met in order to have a useful decision, or soft criteria, which require subjective or qualitative analysis. Assign an importance rating to each criteria.

    Step 6:

    Evaluate the options against the criteria When options and criteria have been established, a table is drawn with the options listed in the rows and the criteria listed in the columns. Each option is rated for each criteria and the value written in the corresponding cell of the table. Then, each criteria is given a numerical importance rating. The final matrix is generated by multiplying each option's rating for a criteria by the criteria's importance rating. An option's overall evaluation is then determined by the sum of this weighted rating for all the criteria. This Options-Criteria Matrix is particularly useful for evaluating soft criteria. It is also called a Prioritization Matrix, Screening Matrix or Decision Matrix. When there are a large number of criteria and options to consider, a spreadsheet or other decision-making tool can be used to simplify calculations, keep track of the analysis, and allow various scenarios to be generated and tested. (A free spreadsheet template can be downloaded from http://www.sorach.com/template.html.)

    Step 7:

    Select the options to pursue Examine the Options and Screening Matrix to determine if some of the options can be combined to create a better solution. Summarize the options selected for implementation and their implications.

    Step 8:

    Analyze the risks All decisions involve an element of risk. Force Field Analysis is useful for uncovering the risks involved or difficulties which need to be overcome when implementing the options. Strategies can then be developed to manage those risks. Time Constraints Frequently, time constraints require us to make decisions before we feel that we have all the information needed. By working through the decision steps on paper, you will know what information is missing, the possible consequences of a wrong decision, and the risks involved if the decision is postponed. This information permits you to decide whether to make the decision now, postpone it, or start implementing some options while collecting information and feedback to finalize the decision.

    Conclusions

    Structured decision-making requires analysis of the four decision components - context, objective, options, & criteria. The analysis must be based on reliable data. By following a step-by-step decision-making process and working on paper, you will have all the information needed to present and justify your decisions, as well as to start implementing them.